NFC Playoff Picture Prediction 2013

NFC Playoff Picture as of Week 14

NFC East:

Philadelphia Eagles (8-6)

Dallas Cowboys (7-7)

NFC West:

Seattle Seahawks (12-2)

San Francisco 49ers (10-4)

Arizona Cardinals (9-5)

NFC North:

Chicago Bears (8-6)

Green Bay Packers (7-6-1)

Detroit Lions (7-7)

NFC South:

Carolina Panthers (10-4)

New Orleans Saints (10-4)

Using the 2013 NFL Playoff Machine on ESPN.com (http://espn.go.com/nfl/playoffs/machine), I came up with what I predict to be the playoff picture after Week 17.

1. Seattle Seahawks (13-3)

I have the Seahawks beating the Cardinals at home in Week 16 and then resting their starters in Week 17 losing to the Rams.

2. Carolina Panthers (10-4)

The Panthers will win out as they play the Saints at home in Week 16 and then go on the road to play a struggling Falcons team in Week 17.

3. Philadelphia Eagles (10-6)

I have both Philadelphia and Dallas winning in Week 16. The Cowboys should beat the Redskins but you never know if they decide to take the ball out of RB DeMarco Murray’s hands.  Philadelphia is playing at home in a shootout with the Chicago Bears.  Whoever decides to take care of the ball best will win the game (winning the turnover battle normally wins games).  I say the Eagles beat the Bears at home. There is no evidence that home field advantage has helped the Eagles this season. I am just betting against Bears QB Jay Cutler. In Week 17 there will be a showdown for the NFC East between the Eagles and the Cowboys down at Jerry World. As you can see, I believe more in the Eagles than the Cowboys placing them as the 3 seed in the playoffs. The Cowboys could shock everyone and run the ball, and win two games to take the division. That simply will not happen because the Cowboys as we know decide to make things difficult on themselves.

4. Green Bay Packers (9-6-1)

In this scenario, the Packers will win out. The home game in Week 16 against the Pittsburgh Steelers will be tough with another game with QB Matt Flynn at the helm.  Then the Packers will be in a showdown with the Chicago Bears in Week 17, with a possible return by QB Aaron Rodgers. The winner of that game is in the playoffs as the NFC North Champion. The Packers could also get in if they lose to the Steelers and the Lions lose to either the Giants in Week 16 or the Vikings in the final game at the Metrodome in Week 17. The Bears would have to lose both games.

5. San Francisco 49ers (12-4)

I have the 49ers winning out despite a potentially tough matchup in Week 17. They will beat the Falcons at home in Week 16.  The game that is up in the air is at Arizona in Week 17. The Cardinals could show up deflated after losing in Week 16 to Seattle on the road. This could make it an easy win for the 49ers and make them the 5 seed playing on the road in Green Bay in the Wild Card Round.

6. New Orleans Saints (11-5)

The Saints defense on the road does not play very well. The Carolina Panthers defense is great wherever they play.  As mentioned above the Saints lose in Week 16.  The Saints will then be playing for the 5th seed. If the 49ers win, the Saints Week 17 game does not matter.  However, the Saints vs Buccaneers game is played at 1pm est. They will be playing to win, and therefore should beat the Buccaneers at home.

The Arizona Cardinals and Detroit Lions will both finish at 9-7. The Dallas Cowboys and Chicago Bears will finish next at 8-8. The NFC was a tough conference this season and much better than the AFC in my opinion.

AFC Playoff Picture Prediction coming tomorrow.

There will be playoff predictions following the end of the regular season.

Adίos for now

Week 13 Power Rankings

1. Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons find ways to win games, period. Their team has talent across the board and the defensive schemes seem to be shutting down most all of the opposing quarterbacks.

2. Houston Texans

The Texans may be the best all-around team in the NFL. They do not always play like which leaves me no choice but to rank them at number 2.

3. Denver Broncos

The defense continues to exceed expectations and QB Peyton Manning seems to be passing like the days of old. Reggie Wayne and Marvin Harrison who?

4. Green Bay Packers

The Green Bay Packers despite injuries all over the defense continue to win games.  They are not pretty but they are winning them. QB Aaron Rodgers has been sacked the most times in the NFL this season.

5. New England Patriots

The offensive skill players are dropping like flies around QB Tom Brady. Yet the train still keeps rolling along.  The defensive unit has played better in recent weeks, especially rookie CB Alfonzo Dennard.

6. San Francisco 49ers

I don’t care what the critics are saying about starting QB Alex Smith. Head Coach Jim Harbaugh has made the right decision to go with QB Colin Kaepernick.  He gives them the best chance to win. We have not seen the 49ers trail yet while Kaepernick is at the helm but when it happens, he has the capability of bringing them back, unlike Smith.

7. New York Giants

The conundrum that is the New York Football Giants continue to frustrate fans week after week.  They can play so well, and then just completely not show up in the same game.

8. Baltimore Ravens

The Ravens defense is not quite as good as it once was. The loss of MLB Ray Lewis and shutdown CB Lardarius Webb has been something that is difficult to overcome in games.  QB Joe Flacco is not very good on the road and if they don’t win the easy games on their schedule will not advance deep into the playoffs.

9. Seattle Seahawks

A gigantic win against the Bears on the road last week. They own the tiebreaker against both the Packers and the Bears if it comes down to it when all is said and done.

10. Chicago Bears

The Bears defense has looked a little slow the last couple of games, they may be showing their age.  The offense continues to sputter against quality defensive opponents.

11. Washington Redskins

RG3…RG3…RG3 was all I heard on Monday Night Football. The Giants only put up 3 points in the second half, thanks to the rushing game of the Redskins keeping QB Eli Manning and company on the sidelines.

12. Indianapolis Colts

QB Andrew Luck may not have the completion percentage that RG3 has but the plays he is forced to make with a subpar group around him is quite spectacular.  The throws he makes to get his receivers open are remarkable.

13. Cincinnati Bengals

The defense needs to continue to put pressure on the opposing QB (leading the league in sacks with 39). The offense needs to limit the turnovers and they will have a great chance to make the playoffs with schedule that is similar to the Steelers.

14. Pittsburgh Steelers

The ageless one QB Charlie Batch gets a road win over the Baltimore Ravens. No one saw that one coming.  That keeps their wild card playoff dreams alive. The schedule the rest of the season is very favorable.

15. Dallas Cowboys

QB Tony Romo has been playing great of late.  His play makes them competitive in games. The defense just needs to have an idea out there because they have a lot of talent.

16. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

I have the Buccaneers ahead of the Saints only because their defense is better. RB Doug Martin has made RB LeGarrette Blount a forgotten man in Tampa Bay.

17. New Orleans Saints

Too bad the Saints struggled to start the year or else the playoff race would look even more jumbled than it already is in the NFC.

18. San Diego Chargers

The Chargers had the Ravens on the ropes a couple of weeks ago. They should have won that game and probably a few more this season. Head Coach Norv Turner has seen his time all but run out and QB Philip Rivers needs a new coach to keep him reigned in.  The defense has been a pleasant surprise.

19. Detroit Lions

If the defense and the Head Coach had an idea on Thanksgiving they probably would have beaten the Houston Texans. However, the Lions continue to shoot themselves in the foot despite huge numbers from the “Madden Cover Curse 2013” WR Calvin Johnson.

20. Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins do have a solid team for how awful they looked in the preseason and during the television series Hard Knocks.  They could upgrade at the RB and WR position.

21. St. Louis Rams

I apparently like the Rams more than other people I talk to.  This is not because they have the 49ers number. They are a well-disciplined team under Head Coach Jeff Fisher and will end the season on a high note.

22. Minnesota Vikings

QB Christian Ponder has struggled mightily without WR Percy Harvin. Opposing defenses cannot stop RB Adrian Peterson, which is a testament to his skill level.

23. Cleveland Browns

The young team has been playing well at home and finally got a road win against the Oakland Raiders. That is one positive that they can use going into next season.

24. Jacksonville Jaguars

QB Chad Henne has been throwing extremely well in the absence of QB Blaine Gabbert.  Henne’s play has allowed for the growth of young WR’s Justin Blackmon and Cecil Shorts. The defense is not that bad but will be upgraded in the offseason.

25. Buffalo Bills

The defense has continued to let this team down. There were high expectations at the start of the season. Instead they will be looking to draft in the top half of the first round.

26. Carolina Panthers

The Panthers have been playing better of late. They are a talented team and will continue to improve.

27. Oakland Raiders

RB/FB Marcel Reese has been a great fill-in for RB Darren McFadden, too bad QB Carson Palmer still throws interceptions like children throwing candy on parade floats.

28. Philadelphia Eagles

Head Coach Andy Reid will be gone after the season. I really like what he is doing with young QB Nick Foles and RB Bryce Brown. I know that whoever signs Reid in the offseason will be getting a quality coach who will turn around their current situation.

29. Tennessee Titans

The team will be playing for draft positioning the rest of the way. I do not know what area of the team they will choose to improve in the early rounds of the draft because they could upgrade any position except Running Back.

30. Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs move up two spots after the win against Carolina.

31. New York Jets

The Jets are still in shambles…going to the backup QB Greg McElroy.

32.  Arizona Cardinals

Where’s Kurt Warner? Glad he is not playing, the offense has given up 47 sacks leaving the three QB’s on the ground more than upright.

NFL Midseason Review + Power Rankings

1. Atlanta Falcons

The Atlanta Falcons own the only unblemished record in the league. Their defense has been better than expected after losing MLB Curtis Lofton to the rival New Orleans Saints.

2. Houston Texans

JJ Watt and the defense, coordinated by Wade Phillips, have put pressure on the quarterback all season long making it difficult for offenses to score points.

3. New York Giants

The Giants tend to play to their opponents level. This makes most of their games closer than they really should be.  The way to beat the Giants is to go after their nickel and dime corners along with their linebacking corps as evidenced by TE Jason Witten’s 18 receptions for 167 yards.

4. San Francisco 49ers

We know they can stop the run as well as run the football.  However, when push comes to shove, can Alex Smith outplay the other teams quarterback in a shootout.  I do not believe he can.

5. Green Bay Packers

The Packers have 3 losses but I still believe that they are a better team than their record implies.  Many injuries to the Packers roster conjures up memories of a year not so long ago…they won the Super Bowl.

6. Chicago Bears

I could tell you about the same old guys on the defense but you should know about the contributions from one Henry Melton. He shows the ability to stop the run and put pressure on the quarterback from the DT position. The loss of deep-play threat WR Alshon Jeffery to a hand injury has made the Bears pass offense one-dimensional (Brandon Marshall).

7. Baltimore Ravens

The Ravens would be higher if healthy but the help they may be getting from DE/OLB Terrell Suggs may just be enough to keep them in the playoff hunt in the weak AFC. Ray Rice needs the ball early and often in games with the play-action pass being utilized off of their great run game.

8. Denver Broncos

Peyton Manning has made that offense much more efficient. RB Ronnie Hillman will need to get more touches out of the backfield to keep RB Willis McGahee fresh down the stretch.  The Broncos defense has only gotten better from last season.  The addition of rookie DE Derek Wolfe and presence of MLB Wesley Woodyard have helped stabilize the run defense.

9. New England Patriots

The offense is great. The defense is not.  The positive for Patriots is that they have the best turnover ratio in the AFC at +13, which is tied with the Giants.

10. Pittsburgh Steelers

Big Ben has been relatively turnover free which bodes well for the Steelers. The defense will get better as the season goes on giving players a chance to get healthy.  The defense is run by the great Dick LeBeau, Hall of Fame coach, can dial up blitzes with the best of them to confuse the opposing quarterback.

After those 10 teams, the rest of the NFL will not likely cause much of a stir in the playoffs.  There is a lot of talent in the NFL; however the talent is does not equate to winning football games.  There is a lot of time left in the season to form chemistry and learn to win close games.

11. Dallas Cowboys

Their defense is good. The shutdown corners on the outside paired with the great pass rush from the defensive line make that defense. The linebackers will have to step up with in the absence of MLB Sean Lee.  The Cowboys are the worst team in the NFC in the turnover ratio.

12. Indianapolis Colts

QB Andrew Luck has been as good as advertised for the Colts offense.  The defense has played inspired football since learning about Head Coach Chuck Pagano’s diagnosis of leukemia. They could make a push for the playoffs with a weak schedule the rest of the way.

13. Seattle Seahawks

A great team at home. Defense thrives and QB Russell Wilson does enough to win.  A struggling team on the road. They should probably be close to .500 at the end of the season.

14. Washington Redskins

QB Robert Griffin III has been outstanding. RB Alfred Morris has been as equally impressive. The defense has really let them down.

15. Philadelphia Eagles

I am not buying into the early season struggles of QB Michael Vick.  I think the second half of the season will be much better for their defense.

16. Detroit Lions

QB Matt Stafford is playing much better of late.  The defense has also been playing better. The loss of WR Nate Burleson will open the door for WR Ryan Broyles and newly acquired WR Mike Thomas.

17. Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins have a very stout defense.  They need to create more turnovers to win games.  QB Ryan Tannehill is injured and that may not be the worst thing for the team. As I stated in the preseason, I believe that QB Matt Moore should be starting. He led them to a win last week, albeit against a New York Jets team in shambles.

18. Cincinnati Bengals

The Bengals made the playoffs last season.  The defense has not been as good as it was last season. QB Andy Dalton needs to make better decisions with the football with 10 interceptions already at the halfway point.

19. San Diego Chargers

QB Philip Rivers is very frustrating to watch. His throwing motion is very unorthodox and makes it seem like he is never on target.  However, I have watched many games and that is not the case. He can be a very good quarterback.  The running game needs to get going for him to utilize the play-action pass which makes any quarterback more efficient. The defense has been a pleasant surprise.

20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

QB Josh Freeman has gotten back to what I think he can be. He has 14 touchdowns and only 5 interceptions. The defense has been forcing turnovers and the offense has capitalized. They could push for the playoffs with a fairly easy schedule down the stretch.

21. Cleveland Browns

The defense and running game has kept the Browns in most games. QB Brandon Weeden continues to improve despite throwing 10 interceptions already this season.

22. Minnesota Vikings

The Vikings have a very good defense at home, sans last week against the Buccaneers.  The offense is a two man show, RB Adrian Peterson and WR Percy Harvin.  If QB Christian Ponder has to take the game over to win, the Vikings will fall short in most of them. They had a cupcake early season schedule. That will change in the second half.

23. Buffalo Bills

RB’s Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller are very good and cannot win games by themselves.  The defense has a lot of talent but refuses to show up for every game, thus their losing record. WR Stevie Johnson has no one to help him out in the passing game.

24. Oakland Raiders

The Raiders have won some and lost some. If RB Darren McFadden does not have a great game, the Raiders will not likely win.

25. Carolina Panthers

QB Cam Newton has struggled. The defense has struggled. The team is under new management. Yet they are still better than 7 other teams.

26. New Orleans Saints

The offense was shut down by the Denver Broncos last night. The defense cannot shut anyone down. The Saints must win in an offensive shootout. I thought that the Saints would struggle some this season. They are struggling even more than I thought they would.

27. Tennessee Titans

QB Matt Hasselbeck gives them the best chance to win each week, even though he wouldn’t be playing if QB Jake Locker was healthy.  However, the offensive skill positions are weak and the offensive line is not blocking very well for RB Chris Johnson.  The defense has not played very well either.

28. St. Louis Rams

The Rams lost WR Danny Amendola for a few games and have not won any of them.  The defense is getting better but they are at least a year away from being a playoff team.

29. Arizona Cardinals

Good thing the Cardinals won their first 4 games.  They might not win 2 more games this season. The quarterback play is not very good, no matter who plays. The RB’s that have tried to run this season have not found any room to find open field. The defense is their one saving grace. They may have to win those 2 games on their own.

30. New York Jets

The Jets are in shambles. CB Darrelle Revis is on IR.  The offense has no playmakers.  The defense no longer can stop the run, which used to be their calling card.

31. Jacksonville Jaguars

QB Blaine Gabbert is one tough cookie.  He played last week despite a torn labrum on his non-throwing shoulder.  WR Cecil Shorts may be a positive to come out of this season. Please do not trade for QB Tim Tebow in the next day. The troubles you already have will not be masked by one player, especially if that player is Tebow.

32. Kansas City Chiefs

The defense is struggling, the offense is sputtering.  The team started QB Brady Quinn. That is all that really needs to be said.